Why soaring corn prices?

This year's food prices have caused the people of the world to sweat. At the end of August, the export ban issued by Russia due to the reduction of wheat production caused the price of the global wheat market to soar, and brought great turbulence to world food prices. After a bit of relief, the Americans added another mess: The US Department of Agriculture announced its new US corn production forecast report on the 8th on the 10th, stating that although the US corn planting area has increased by 258,000 hectares this year, it is expected to reduce the production of corn by 6.7 hectares. Poole, so that the United States this year's total corn production will be reduced by 4%. When the news came out, the whole world was shocked that international corn prices soared 6% on the same day. On October 11, three days later, global corn prices soared by 8.5%, creating a record that was the global corn price in the past 37 years. The fastest growing day.

Why does the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report cause so much global reaction? It turned out to be simple. No matter whether the FAO or the US Department of Agriculture has been reporting the increase in the production of corn this year in the United States for several months, this time around the harvest season, it suddenly changed its output and made the world unprepared. Another reason is that the proportion of US corn in global corn exports is too large, reaching 60%. In the past many years, US corn exports accounted for 70-80% of global trade volume, and US corn production accounted for two-fifths of the world's total.

Biggers are even more worried about whether this corn price boom will continue. The turmoil in global wheat prices has exacerbated fears about corn prices. Another global corn production and consumption country, China, recently imported 61,000 tons of US corn from the international market. This is the first time China has imported corn on such a large scale for the past 15 years. China imports a lot of it to the United States and the world. Send a strong signal: Is China's corn production increased or reduced? The rapid development of China's animal husbandry, the rapid growth of demand for corn in the pig industry, and floods in Northeast China have caused China's demand for global corn to be highly uncertain. How much corn will China import from the world? As a huge economy, China’s every move will bring about a “great country effect” in the world market. This means that as soon as China imports something, everything rises, China exports something, and what gets Very cheap. The scale effect sometimes has a great negative effect.

From another point of view, Americans themselves will greatly increase their demand for corn this year, because the U.S. government stipulates that 15% of corn fuel ethanol will be added to the regulations that will take effect, which will make the United States’ own demand for corn large. increase.

Uncertainty factors may make global corn prices continue to rise and remain high.

And there is even worse news about China, which is that soy prices are soaring globally. For a country that imports a lot of imports and severely punishes dependence on the supply of soybeans in the international market, it is very difficult to do so. Soybean eat less oil?

Some people speculated that the information released by the United States this time was a bit of a roar. Global wheat prices have risen and soybean prices have risen. As an absolute monopoly in the global market, Americans are overwhelming, and of course they have to go up. Therefore, the US Department of Agriculture and FAO's forecast of US corn production in a short period of time, will say that one will increase production, one will also predict a reduction in production, release the signal of confusion, but also to win in the chaos. There is reason to suspect that the messy signals in the US corn market are caused by weather or other factors.

This year’s soaring global food prices have led countries that have relied heavily on global food imports to make a secret decision that food must be produced on its own, otherwise it is too subject to human control. This result will make global food prices more volatile, and the current international food prices have been unable to jump out of this vicious cycle. However, there are also many people of insight who have been calling for the establishment of a global food reserve and alleviating the price changes brought about by climate change so as to attract more countries to abandon the self-sufficient food security strategy. However, as the world's largest food exporter, the United States, with its own intentions, and the soaring food prices, it is certainly the United States that benefits the most. However, the United States has also reduced the area sown through land fallow programs so that it can maintain a high price. If the world's food prices do not rise or fall, the United States will suffer the most damage. Under this pattern of interests, Americans certainly will not agree.