The short-term performance of corn is difficult

The possibility of a decelerating or even a secondary recession in the global economy has increased, causing the commodity market to face great risks in the short term. The purchase of the State Reserve has not yet been introduced. Therefore, short-term corn prices will be difficult to achieve.

In November, due to the spread of the debt crisis in Europe, the economic data of emerging economies, and other multiple problems, the commodity market as a whole entered a downward aisle, and the fundamental factors of various varieties appeared to have become “clouds.” As the situation changes, the supply and demand fundamentals of the macroscopic surface and the variety are the main factors.

Macroeconomic Analysis European debt is clouded by clouds. Since the arrival of the rainy season, the global economic data has continued to deteriorate. The US manufacturing PMI for October was 50.8%, which was significantly lower than market expectations, indicating that US manufacturing expansion has contracted again. The European debt crisis has spread. The failure of German debt issuance shows that the crisis has begun to “invade” the core members of the euro zone. The euro zone sovereign debt crisis will affect the core countries of the euro zone, which has led to the emergence of the euro, stock market, industrial products and agricultural products Full adjustment.

China's HSBC PMI Index is low, and monetary policy or fine-tuning China's HSBC China's November manufacturing PMI index released by HSBC is only 48, and it is back below 50 points. The sharp drop from the previous month's 51% means that the business conditions of SMEs have been drastically reversed. It is expected that the economic downturn may exceed expectations in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Against the background of continued slowdown in growth and a drop in inflationary pressure, many foreign banks expect the Chinese government to gradually ease monetary policy from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. It is expected that the central bank will cut the deposit reserve ratio for the first time by the end of December.

The strong rebound of the US dollar index, and the fact that commodity weakness is hard to change and affect commodity prices, another very important factor is the trend of the US dollar. Since the international financial crisis occurred, the U.S. dollar index has gradually weakened the impact on commodity prices. However, in the long term, the high negative correlation between U.S. dollar and commodities is still an indisputable fact. The debt crisis in Europe has been deteriorating, and the U.S. dollar index has once again risen against the negative impact on commodities. The impact is large, and the weak commodity is hard to change.

Analysis of Maize Fundamental Situations The level of U.S. corn stocks is low. China's demand gap for corn expands year-on-year in the USDA supply and demand report in November. The USDA lowered 2011 maize production estimate to 12.3 billion bushels, and the US 2011/2012 corn inventory was 16%. The lowest level of the year, from the report point of view, the future supply of US corn is still tight. The National Grain and Oil Information Center recently raised its 2011 corn production forecast to 184.5 million tons, an increase of 3.93% over the previous year. Although China's corn harvested this year, the stock situation remains tight. China is the world's second-largest corn consumer. With the increase in corn production in recent years, not only the consumption of feed has increased rapidly, but also the consumption of raw materials by the corn deep-processing industry has increased significantly. According to the latest forecast of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the number of corn imports from China in 2011/2012 is expected to reach 5 million tons. The increasing number of corn imports indicates that China's demand gap for corn has gradually widened.

The impact of new food prices on the market, the end of the downstream industry contraction demand corn prices in the calendar year lows generally appear in November-December, this stage is generally a new crop corn concentrated listing period, the market price by staged supply increase impact of decline. Recently, the sluggish prices of pigs in the country have continuously dropped and pig diseases have become severe, forcing some farmers to step up slaughter and reduce feed demand. The sluggish sales of terminals and the drop in the prices of corn in the producing areas led to the careful stocking of feed companies, which put pressure on short-term corn prices.

The purchasing policies of the State Reserve have not been promulgated yet, and other acquisition entities have a wait-and-see mood. In 2010, the state subsidized the purchase of corn for the central government at 70 yuan, and its policy inversion caused many private and private enterprises to dare to enter the domestic corn market in large numbers. Before this year's National Reserve purchase policy was introduced, it was expected that other buying entities in the market would be more cautious in purchasing and selling, and would not conduct large-scale corn acquisitions.

Operation suggests that the possibility of a decelerating or even a secondary recession in the global economy will increase, and the commodity market will face great risks in the short term and be relatively weak. Before the external markets take a favorable turn, combined with the delay in the acquisition of the State Reserve, corn prices will be difficult. There are brilliant performances. At present, the main contract price of corn 1205 has dropped to around 2,150 yuan/ton planting cost, and there will be a strong support role in the 2100-2150 yuan/ton range. Combined with the trend of the technology, before standing at a high of 2,280 yuan/ton in the previous stage, it is expected that even the corn will maintain its weak oscillatory trading range, and short-term operations will be short-selling in rallies.