Four suggestions for current pig farmers
Recently, an expert from the Animal Husbandry and Animal Husbandry Department of the Hunan Provincial Animal Husbandry and Aquaculture Bureau in the province of pig-breeding said that, at present, farmers have just begun to turn a deficit into profits, but they are basically in a state of preservation and only have some margins. He emphasized: "The price of pigs has risen, but feed prices have also risen and the cost of breeding has continued to increase."
Edible agricultural products prices have risen
In addition to the slight increase in live hog prices in 8 weeks, the prices of other edible agricultural products rose by more than half. According to the monitoring report issued by the “Commercial Forecasting†of the Ministry of Commerce on August 4, last week (referring to July 27-August 2), the overall national commodity market was operating stably. The price of edible agricultural products monitored by 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by 0.7% from the previous week (referring to July 19-26), and the market price of production materials increased by 1% from the previous week.
Among the 57 major edible agricultural products, prices rose by 30 kinds on a week-on-week basis, accounting for 52.6%; there were 6 types of flat products, accounting for 10.5%; and 21 products fell, accounting for 36.9%. Last week, the wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables rose by an average of 5.8%; the wholesale prices of pork and beef rose by 1.8% and 0.2% respectively.
Fourth quarter pig price or significant increase
Although the price of pigs has risen for 8 weeks, experts believe that the trend of rising pig prices in the third quarter is still not optimistic. The above experts pointed out that from the perspective of the inhabitants' structure of livestock, the proportion of fertile sow populations in the country is still generally above 10%, of which the figure in Hunan Province is close to 11%, and the appropriate proportion should be 7% to 9%. . In addition, the ratio of medium pigs to large pigs should not exceed 30% under normal circumstances, but currently Hunan Province is 32% to 33%. The above two data are high, indicating that the amount of hog slaughter in the third quarter will still have a substantial increase.
However, the expert also stated that the current 25% to 26% of the piglet data show that the previous production control measures have been effective and farmers have consciously controlled the production scale. Therefore, the meat price should rise significantly at the end of this year and early next year.
Wang Jimin, director of the Animal Husbandry Office of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that from the analysis of seasonal consumption characteristics, pork consumption will begin in the third quarter. Therefore, it is expected that meat prices will rise in the low quarter and reach the fourth quarter. The upward trend.
According to the monthly average price chart of live pigs from June 2000 to December 2008, the large cycle of live pigs' profit and loss is about 3 years, and the peaks and troughs have roughly the same time. This round of live hog prices began in May 2006, after reaching a peak after 21 months of price increase until March 2009, the market for pigs will begin to fall into a falling cycle in April 2008. From the analysis of the profit and loss cycle, the live pig market in 2009 is in a falling range, and in the second half of the year, the live pig market will be adjusted mainly by shocks. During this period, the pig price may rise slightly.
The association also sampled and analyzed the status of breeding pigs in the production areas in the past four years. It can be seen from this that the amount of sows in stocks is gradually increasing in 2008, and the corresponding slaughter volume for pigs in 2009 will also gradually increase. Among them, the number of gilts increased significantly from May to May 2008, corresponding to an increase in the number of commercial pigs listed in May-July 2009; a number of senior mothers were eliminated during the slaughter of pigs from September to October 2008. For pigs, the market share of commercial pigs from July to September 2009 will be reduced. Since 2009, the number of sow population bases has continued to increase, and commodity pigs have been listed in 2010. Therefore, the number of pigs slaughtered in 2010 will continue to increase, and the market for pigs will not be optimistic.
In addition, according to the analysis of the number of pigs listed in the number of piglets in several sampling areas in South China, it is predicted that the overall slaughter volume of pigs in the second half of 2009 will continue to increase, and the slaughter volume of pigs in August-September will decrease slightly. Sampling Data Analysis The pig slaughter volume in the second half of 2009 increased by 16.5% year-on-year, and increased by 3.6% from the previous month.
Pig raising costs are a common concern for farmers. From the comparative analysis of the two major aquaculture costs of pig production (outsourced piglets and feedstuffs) (Figure 4), the year-to-month period from January to May 2009 was 2008: the cost of outsourcing piglets decreased by 51.7%, and the cost of feed culture decreased by 9.1. %. After the third quarter of 2008, the cost of hog farming fell significantly, especially outsourcing seedlings. At present, the cost of breeding for self-cultivation (self-cultivation and self-cultivation) is about 4.5-5.2 yuan/kg, and the cost for large-scale breeding enterprises is about 4.7-5.3 yuan/kg.
Four suggestions for current pig farmers
According to the analysis report, the current pig breeding industry faces five major risks: market risk, disease risk, environmental risk, policy risk, and food safety risk. In a complex breeding environment, it is not easy for the majority of pig farmers to raise pigs and be able to make profits. The hog prices have continued to drop since 2009, and the hog industry has been lingering on the P&L line since May and it is expected that the 2010 market will be worse than it is now. In the face of such market conditions, the Association recommends that the households can actively respond to the following four aspects and strive for greater benefits:
1. Pay attention to the management and production of the farm and increase the output of the farm. During the sluggish market, farmers should invest more enthusiasm in the management and production of farms, improve their internal skills, control costs, increase sow production capacity, and increase the profitability of single-head commodity pigs so as to maintain sufficient competitiveness. Only calmly face the arrival of the industry downturn.
2. Reasonably eliminate some pigs and maintain a high-yield and high-efficiency herd structure. According to the actual research on many production areas in South China, the number of sows in stock has continued to increase since 2009, so the 2010 live pig market is not optimistic. Farmers can appropriately reduce the scale of farming to avoid risks, while eliminating backward production capacity of pigs, while maintaining a high-yield and high-efficiency herd structure, waiting for the coming of the spring hog industry.
3, adjust the slaughter weight of pigs, timely slaughter. The bigger the pig's weight, the lower the feed remuneration. Therefore, the farmers can properly adjust the weight of the finishing pigs according to the market demand and their own reality, so as to reduce the feeding cost.
4. Pay attention to the collection of information on raw materials and pig prices. The farm managers of large-scale pig farms should pay close attention to the information on raw materials and live pigs, keep abreast of market information and late price trends, and purchase high-efficiency, low-cost raw materials or feeds to maintain a reasonable and high-priced pig slaughter price. If the conditions are ripe, it may also be used to store or store raw materials in advance, or to sew pigs to obtain greater economic benefits.
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