This year's fertilizer winter storage is not a matter of time, but is a matter of price.

Since the beginning of this year, the prices of chemical fertilizers have been climbing all the way up. Even if it is the off-season season for using fertilizers in autumn, the market price is still concussed at a high level. In addition, the current international financial market has experienced rapid turmoil, global financial instability has increased, and the domestic economic environment has also been greatly affected. In the face of apparently large market risks, most companies are afraid to actively operate, and winter reserves have stagnated. Industry insiders are actively discussing how to deal with this year's winter storage.

“China Agricultural Resources” Reporter: After the National Day holiday, domestic urea prices have fallen. Do you think this is a short-term adjustment, or is the price of urea entering the adjustment period?

Chen Zhihao: After entering October, domestic urea is only required for wheat fertilizer in the northern region. With the end of wheat fertilizer demand, the domestic urea market will also enter the off-season. As the current export situation is not satisfactory, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will gradually appear, so the urea price will continue to fluctuate downward trend. After the National Day holiday, many companies have slightly lowered the factory price, which is also in line with market expectations. I think the current urea price has entered the adjustment period.

“China Agricultural Resources” Reporter: The bidding for the 2011-2012 fertilizer stockpile has ended, but the current winter storage market has not yet started. What do you think will happen to the winter storage this year?

Chen Zhihao: This year's winter storage is not a matter of time, but a price issue. Although the current price of urea has dropped slightly, it still maintains a high of about 2,200 yuan/ton, which is far higher than the psychological expectations of dealers. Although the increase in raw material costs has driven up the rise in urea prices, the degree of acceptance by farmers is not High, therefore, the current price is still relatively high. If this price gets goods, we must wait until next spring to sell. Once the price of urea falls, dealers will suffer a greater loss, so this year's winter storage market starts mainly by The price is decided.

"Chinese Agricultural Resources" Reporter: How do you judge the trend of urea prices this year, and how much is the reasonable price of urea winter storage this year?

Chen Zhihao: As the current urea market price has entered the adjustment period, it is expected that with the domestic market entering the off-season in the short term, urea prices are expected to fall below 2,100 yuan/ton by the end of October. I think that the reasonable price of urea winter storage this year should be around 1950 yuan / ton, if the urea price fell below 2,000 yuan / ton, there will be businesses to start receiving goods, but even the price of 1950 yuan / ton can not guarantee sales next spring certain Can make money, because in the next 2-3 months of next year, the spring urea market may also appear to fall prices, although it is too early to judge, but it should also do the worst.

“China Agricultural Resources” Reporter: As one of the largest agricultural distribution companies in China, how will the Zhejiang Agricultural Group's winter storage work this year?

Chen Zhihao: If the price of urea drops to 2,050 yuan/ton in the short term, we will take some of the goods, but only to maintain the cooperative relationship with the manufacturers. If urea prices fall in anticipation and fall to around 1950 yuan/ton, we will gradually replenish as planned to ensure normal supply of the market.