Why did the medical sector become the black swan distribution center?

Why did the medical sector become the black swan distribution center? As the saying goes, the disease enters the mouth. Looking at the A-share market, the medical, food and beverage sectors closely related to the “mouth” are always prone to black swan events. In 2011, Hualan Bioplasma Station was shut down, Chongqing Brewery Hepatitis B Vaccine Research failed, and Cornell Pharmaceuticals Nimesulil Granules were strengthened in use management. If last year’s black swan event was more individualistic, then this year It showed a tragic picture of “one loss, one loss, and one loss.” One of the most widespread violations of capsule chromium exceeded the market image of the entire capsule industry.

It is foreseeable that in the medical sector, the black swan event will be "similar in age and year old." There are always some unpredictable incidents that disturb the calm lake in this pool.

For the reasons why the pharmaceutical industry frequently flies out of the black swan, Cho Chung, an analyst in the medical and pharmaceutical industry at Zhuo Chong thinks that this is related to the nature of the pharmaceutical industry itself. “One is that everyone is more sensitive to this industry. Food and medicine has a direct relationship with the health of the people, plus the reputation of the two domestic industries is not very good now. Once something is very easy to ferment.” Medicines are dealing with ordinary people every day. Relatively speaking, the probability of using medicines is higher, and the probability of accidents will increase. Third, our current medical technology and life technology cannot fully guarantee the safety issue."

Jiang Huayang, a research fellow of China Investment Advisor Pharmaceutical Industry Group, believes that the concealment of information disclosure is one aspect: “The pharmaceutical industry has the characteristics of high technical content and high barriers to entry, and the complex structure of the industry has led to the disclosure of information disclosure. The understanding of the industry is not deep, and it is difficult to grasp the stakes in the event of major quality events without specific information disclosure.

The base drug bidding method is also considered to be the “curse” that causes frequent medical accidents. “The domestic pharmaceutical industry has been scattered and the quality of medicines has been mixed. Before the bidding method for the base medicines, it was too biased towards low-price theory, and the requirements for the quality of medicines were relatively low. This also caused frequent medical accidents in recent years.” Zhao Zhen analyzed.

"Because of the special nature of the pharmaceutical industry, the triggering factors of the Black Swan event can come from various aspects, such as the failure of the national pharmaceutical policy, foreign company competition and scientific research results, etc. The lack of innovation has the risk of being overtaken, and increasing the investment in innovation has the risk of failure in R&D. It is not surprising that the pharmaceutical industry is included in high-risk areas.” According to Jiang Huayang, in general, the pharmaceutical industry is a Chaoyang enterprise, and investors can only obtain good returns if they truly grasp its essence.

In fact, the problems exposed by the black swan event also indicate the direction of the pharmaceutical companies to improve themselves. The "Poison Capsule" incident has caused some companies' reputations to be damaged. Compared with short-term sales revenue losses, the intangible losses are even greater. However, from another point of view, after this incident, pharmaceutical companies will strictly control the quality of raw materials, the supervision of the production sector will increase and reshape the company's brand image.

In any case, if investors encounter these black swan is very tortured, how can we avoid the black swan as much as possible?

In addition to the black swan caused by human factors and policy factors, is the black swan with adverse reaction factors controllable? Adverse events are different. In general, injections and injections of traditional Chinese medicine are more frequently used. In addition, biopharmaceuticals are also used. From the perspective of risk avoidance, companies that use these products as their main products should be avoided as far as possible. But biopharmaceuticals, especially those new drugs, often bring huge profits to the company. Only after the improvement of the regulatory measures, the collective hazards, serious hazards, and drug-induced hazards of adverse reactions will be reduced. There is a risk in medicine itself.

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