Machinery Industry Inventory and Outlook

Core summary: To take stock of the development trend of the machinery industry in 2007, Cai Weici, vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, summed up the “good and fast” instead of “good and fast”. The reason is “to leave some room for the development trend of the industry this year”.
In fact, for the development trend of the machinery industry in 2008, the industry has long been confident. Cai Weici clearly pointed out in the industry operation analysis meeting held by the China Machinery Industry Federation recently that the tremendous progress of the machinery industry in 2007 laid a good foundation for the development in 2008. At present, the market demand situation of China's machinery industry is generally good. Most enterprises hold more orders and the production tasks are still full, providing market conditions for maintaining rapid growth in 2008.
According to the prediction of China National Machinery Association, in 2008, the production of machinery industry will continue to grow at a rate of about 20% for the sixth consecutive year. Sales, efficiency and exports are also likely to increase by about 20%. The output of important products will achieve another record. The output of automobiles will hit 10 million vehicles. The power generation equipment is expected to maintain a high level of around 100 million kilowatts. The output of CNC machine tools will reach 140,000 to 150,000 units. The output of other major products will also be It is expected to continue to grow steadily.
Data: In 2007, the machinery industry showed two booms in production and sales. In 2007, the machinery industry showed a gratifying trend of both production and sales: the total industrial output value increased by nearly 32% over the previous year, and continued to develop rapidly at a rate of more than 20% for the fifth consecutive year; important machinery production to new highs, the annual production of more than 120 million kilowatts power generation equipment, automobiles 8.88 million, about 12 million units of CNC machine tools; industry-wide in the first 11 months of profit 388.666 billion yuan, an increase of 47.79 percent over the previous year; major development of equipment to achieve a number of breakthroughs, the development of energy saving equipment made a number of important results; exports grew 40.74%, 20.67 percentage points higher than the growth rate of imports; machinery and equipment self-sufficiency rate of over 80%, good for the national economy The rapid development has made due contributions.
Sustained and rapid development of production from January to December 2007, industrial output value of the machinery industry is expected to be the first time exceeded 7 trillion yuan. Among the 95 major products counted by China Mobile, there were 79 kinds of growth, and 74 of them grew at double-digit rate, accounting for 77.89%.
Power generation equipment: a record level of 110 million kilowatts in 2006, more than the foundation of the world production of other countries and on another record high 2007 production is expected to more than 120 million kilowatts.
Car: 2007, China's auto output for the first time more than 8 million, the cumulative production of 8.88 million, an increase of 22.02% over the beginning of the expected 8 million level. From 2000 to 2007, China's automobile production jumped from 2 million to 8.88 million, with an average growth rate of over 20% for seven consecutive years, which is unprecedented in the world.
CNC machine tools: Since March last year, the monthly output has exceeded 10,000 units. It is estimated that the annual output will be more than 120,000 units, a net increase of 35,000 units per year compared with the annual output of 85,800 units in 2006.
The economic benefits increased significantly from January to November 2007. The machinery enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 388.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.79%, which was nearly 16 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the total industrial output value in the same period. The total tax amount was 210.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.59. %, an increase of 48.190 billion yuan year-on-year, achieving a record high in both profits and taxes. In the same period, the comprehensive index of economic benefits of machinery industry was 197.24%, an increase of 25.59 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
Good production and sales

From January to November 2007, the sales rate of machinery industry products was as high as 97.32%, and the profit rate of main business income was 6.19%, up 0.67 percentage points year-on-year; the labor productivity of all employees was 142,600 yuan/person year, up by 29,300 yuan/year. , increased by 25.8%; industrial added value rate of 26.86%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points; asset-liability ratio of 59.52%, down 0.27 percentage points year-on-year; current assets turnover rate of 2.09 times, an increase of 0.77 times.
According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of 2007, the total import and export of machinery industry was 32.71 billion US dollars, up 30.3% year-on-year; the export was 174.814 billion US dollars, up 40.74%; the import was 152.296 billion US dollars, up 20.07%; The proportion of exports was 16.60%, 15.84% and 17.61%, respectively, both of which increased from the previous year.
The first 11 months of trade surplus of $ 22.5 billion for the same period in the country's foreign trade surplus of US $ 238.848 billion of 9.43%. Previously, the machinery industry has been one of the major foreign trade industries in the country. The sharp increase in the surplus shows the improvement of the international competitiveness of the machinery industry. Since 2006, the machinery industry has changed from net imports to net exports.
Operational characteristics: Equipment self-sufficiency rate exceeds 80%. Key equipment technology advances in recent years. In recent years, China's self-sufficiency rate of machinery and equipment has steadily increased, and it has reached 81.46%, and the pace of key equipment technology has accelerated.
In major technical equipment, the proportion of 600,000 kW units exceeds 300,000 kW units; 1 million kW units have begun mass production; subcritical to supercritical and ultra-supercritical upgrades; air-cooled units and wind power equipment develop rapidly; 500,000 volts AC and DC The localization of power transmission and transformation equipment is gratifying; the research on UHV transmission and transformation equipment is progressing well; the metallurgical equipment and petrochemical equipment have made gratifying progress.
In terms of basic equipment, CNC machine tool production continued to maintain rapid growth. From January to October 2007, a total of 97,490 CNC machine tools were produced, an increase of 34.91% year-on-year. The annual output is expected to be close to 120,000 units; large CNC vehicles for processing marine crankshafts A number of key equipment such as milling machines and large-scale marine propeller processing equipment have made breakthroughs. The products required for consumption upgrades have been greatly developed, and the variety of marketable products has increased substantially, and prices have continued to decline.
On the one hand, the energy-saving and emission-reducing contribution has been continuously increased. On the one hand, advanced equipment with high efficiency, energy saving and low emission has been accelerated. In the first half of 2007, the output of thermal power units of 300,000 kilowatts and above has accounted for 79% of the total output of thermal power units, of which 600,000 kilowatts and The development speed of the 1 million-kilowatt unit is particularly outstanding, indicating that the product structure upgrade optimization with high efficiency and energy-saving orientation has made gratifying progress. At the same time, new products of low-temperature waste heat utilization devices have been added, and the production of environmental protection equipment and test instruments has increased. On the other hand, mechanical manufacturing enterprises have made remarkable progress in energy conservation and emission reduction. In recent years, the comprehensive energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of output value of machinery industry has been reduced by 21% annually, and the annual consumption of steel output per 10,000 yuan has been reduced by 8%.
The trend of international trade is improving First, the import and export trade turned from a deficit to a surplus. From January to September 2007, the machinery industry realized a trade surplus of 16.8 billion US dollars. Secondly, the export products are upgraded from general products to high value-added products, especially in the construction machinery, automobile and parts industries. Third, general trade grows faster than processing trade, and its share in foreign trade is already greater than that of processing trade. Fourth, the growth rate of import and export of private enterprises is higher than the industry average. In the first 9 months, the total import and export volume of private enterprises reached 46.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 42.87% over the same period of last year, which is much higher than the growth rate of 29.30%.
Accelerated adjustment of industry structure

The structural adjustment of the machinery industry has been accelerated: the speed of product upgrades has accelerated. From January to October 2007, the total cost of product and technology research and development by machinery industry enterprises has generally increased, and the growth rate of new products in the whole industry has reached 37%. It is obviously faster than the growth rate of 31.91% of the total industrial output value in the same period; the industrial agglomeration accelerates development. Under the guidance of government policies at all levels and the promotion of market economy, industrial agglomeration featuring specialization and scale production has begun to sprout and bloom in many areas. As a result, the characteristic industries and competitive advantages have gradually formed; a large number of industry leaders have developed very well and started to develop on a virtuous cycle; the industry pattern has changed, the electrician and automobile industries have developed rapidly, and the proportion in the total industry has been More than half of the total, construction machinery, basic machinery and parts and components do not dominate, but the development speed is eye-catching, but the development speed of agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery is relatively lagging behind.
Enterprises began to get rid of the vicious competition mode With the continuous expansion of the construction and transformation of machinery manufacturing enterprises, the production capacity of enterprises built or planned to build has doubled, and the capacity expansion of the whole industry is extremely fierce. Although the convergence of product structure is still the main contradiction in the development of the machinery industry, some forward-looking regions and enterprises have begun to develop differentiated and personalized products to get rid of the low-price vicious competition mode and strive for more favorable. The development space, strive to occupy the active position of development.
At the same time, the on-site management and process equipment level of machinery manufacturing enterprises are rapidly upgraded, the factory buildings are cleaner, the management is more strict, the equipment is more advanced, and the process is more modern. In many places, the company moved into the development zone, the industrial park and the enterprise restructuring, transformation and upgrading, so that the production conditions of the whole industry have undergone profound changes.
Question: The extensive growth model of the machinery industry needs to be changed. Yu Zhen, president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said: "In the face of the current rapid development, the machinery industry must maintain a clear-headed, objective assessment of the achievements, to see the current China. The machinery industry has not fundamentally changed the extensive development model, and the foundation for supporting the sustainable and stable development of the industry is still fragile."
"At present, the development of the industry is over-reliant on the rapid growth of the output of physical products; the technology sources supporting the development of high-end products are over-reliant on foreign countries, and independent innovation, especially the original innovation capability is not strong enough to undertake the heavy responsibility of supporting the technical upgrading of the whole industry." Yu Zhen pointed out As the demand for raw materials and energy such as copper, aluminum and high-quality steel has grown too fast, the bottleneck of resource and energy supply has been continuously strengthened. At the same time, large castings and forgings, ultra-high voltage AC and DC insulation bushings and insulation molded parts, DC field equipment, key supporting bearings for wind power equipment, high-grade engines and hydraulic parts for engineering machinery, high-grade CNC systems and functional components, frequency conversion devices and their power Key components such as electronic components, high-end control systems and test instruments, high-end electrical components and bearings also restrict the development of localization of high-end equipment.
"Because of the excessive expansion of production capacity, the current contradiction of oversupply is accumulating. With the increase of international trade balance pressure, trade friction has intensified." Yu Zhen pointed out that although China's machinery industry has developed rapidly in recent years, The industry's sustainable development of anti-risk ability is still very weak, so the task of accelerating the transformation of economic development mode and optimizing the industrial structure is still urgent and arduous.
Trend: Strong market demand will slow down the development of the industry. The China Machine Federation predicts that the total domestic and international demand for China's machinery industry in 2008 is expected to continue to grow. It is expected that the machinery industry economy is expected to continue to maintain steady and rapid growth throughout the year, but the growth rate will slow down from 2007. Among the main economic indicators: the total industrial output value increased by about 25%, the total profit increased by about 20%, and the total import and export volume increased by about 20% year-on-year; the international trade surplus will continue to expand.
At the same time, the output of important products will also achieve another record. The output of automobiles will impact 10 million vehicles. The power generation equipment is expected to maintain a high level of around 100 million kilowatts. The output of CNC machine tools will reach 140,000 to 150,000 units. Products are also expected to continue to grow steadily.

In terms of operation of the sub-sector, it is estimated that the main business income of the construction machinery industry in 2008 will reach 252 billion yuan, the profit will reach 21.6 billion yuan, the export will be 11 billion yuan, and the import will be 6 billion yuan; the main economic operation index of the agricultural machinery industry will increase by about 20%. The output of major products will further increase, but the wheat combine harvester will be further reduced, the rice combine harvester will increase by more than 20%, and the corn combine harvester will increase by more than 20%; the electrical industry will benefit from the macro-control effect, from the order quantity, the output of power generation equipment Still reaching 100 million kilowatts, the total production and sales scale of power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing industry will grow at a rate of 20%, and the total output value (current price) is expected to reach 2.35 trillion yuan, an increase of about 24% year-on-year, and the main business income is about 23,000. 100 million yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year, total profit of about 130 billion yuan, an increase of about 24%, total import and export of about 110 billion US dollars, an increase of about 24%; bearing industry is expected to achieve sales of about 90 billion yuan, bearing output 9.2 billion sets; the growth rate of the petrochemical equipment industry is expected to remain above 40%.
Market demand continues to be strong. Yu Zhen believes that the development of the machinery industry is in an unprecedented period of rapid growth. In 2008, it will face five major development opportunities: First, China is in an important period of industrialization and modernization, with huge domestic demand market support and equipment demand. The total amount will continue to maintain a fairly prosperous period, which will inevitably lead to the development of the machinery industry. Second, China’s accelerating new rural construction and urbanization process has opened up new development areas and services for the development of the machinery industry. Space; third, despite the increasing international restrictions on exports to China, the comparative advantages of China's machinery industry are gradually emerging. Economic globalization and international industrial transfer will further provide tremendous impetus for the development of the industry. Fourth, the party and the country will revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry. The policy effect is increasingly apparent, and will continue to guide and drive the mechanical industry to accelerate the pace of development; Fifth, the accelerating industrial upgrading, the vitality of the development of the machinery industry will continue to increase, and the overall competitiveness of the industry will be continuously improved.
Recommendations: Enhance equipment manufacturing service capacity and strengthen industry planning Yu Zhen believes that to continue to maintain a good and fast development momentum, the machinery industry should start to strengthen industry planning from five aspects.
First of all, we must accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode and strive to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.
The focus and focus of the work should be on accelerating the “hard” strength of tangible products and assets, and paying more attention to improving intangible products and assets, namely product development and process technology, especially differentiated products, special equipment, production lines. The development technology, unique process technology, and modern manufacturing services industry and other "soft" strength direction adjustment, guide enterprises to increase investment in technology innovation, product and process research and development, market development and services, human resources training.
Through reform, restructuring, alliance, merger and other means, we will give full play to the market's role in optimizing the allocation of resources. With capital as the link, we will endeavor to cultivate a group of large and strong enterprise groups with famous brands and independent intellectual property rights, outstanding main business, strong core competitiveness and ability to compete with advanced enterprises in industrial developed countries. Actively promote the coordinated development of large enterprise groups and small and medium-sized enterprises, establish a scientific and rational industrial organization structure, vigorously promote asset restructuring and regional industrial agglomeration, promote the informationization project of machinery industry, and strive to develop a modern industrial system.
Second, accelerate the construction of independent innovation capabilities in the machinery industry, and further increase efforts to reduce energy consumption and reduce emissions.
Organize the implementation of machinery industry technology innovation and guidance projects, accelerate the establishment of a technology innovation system that is enterprise-oriented, market-oriented, and combines production, education and research, carry out pilot projects for innovative enterprises in the machinery industry and pilot projects in key laboratories for machinery industry; strengthen industry engineering (Technology) Construction of research centers and technological innovation service institutions; Strengthening the construction of public technology service platforms for machinery industry; Strive to promote the implementation of key technology development projects in the machinery industry in the "National Major Industrial Technology Development Project"; The “Five-National National Science and Technology Support Program”; optimize the allocation of scientific and technological resources, guide and support the innovation elements to gather in enterprises, do a good job in the promotion of scientific and technological achievements, and promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into real productivity.

Yu Zhen pointed out that the machinery industry should, according to its own industrial characteristics, on the one hand, pay close attention to energy conservation and consumption reduction in the production process, on the other hand, develop energy-saving and consumption-reducing products, and develop low-energy, low-pollution mechanical equipment as industrial structure and products. Important structural initiatives to accelerate the development of efficient and clean generator sets and renewable energy, hybrid and new energy vehicles, low-pollution internal combustion engines, environmental protection devices, and other advanced machinery and equipment needed to save energy, reduce material consumption and clean production. Constantly meet the needs of national economic development.
Third, accelerate the development of modern manufacturing service industry and further strengthen the localization of major technical equipment.
Efforts to improve the proportion and level of the service industry, and the development of modern manufacturing service industry, as an important task for the machinery industry to transform the economic development mode, industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, and enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry, closely integrate the productivity development level and actuality of the machinery industry. Need to accelerate the development of modern logistics, financial services, information services, data processing, technology services, technology research and development, business services, after-sales service, environmental services, creative design, professional consulting, engineering contracting, service outsourcing and other modern manufacturing services; Enterprises consciously increase investment in capital, manpower and technology research and development in this area, and strengthen corresponding market development.
Adhere to the localization of major technical equipment as an entry point for revitalizing the machinery industry, thoroughly understand and conscientiously implement the state's technical equipment policy to promote independent innovation, give full play to the leading role of major national special projects, and rely on national key projects and major projects to cooperate. Development, joint manufacturing and independent research and development, in nuclear power, high-efficiency clean power generation and power transmission and transformation, large-scale petrochemical, advanced and applicable transportation equipment, high-end CNC machine tools, automation control, integrated circuit equipment and advanced power equipment and other areas to achieve focus Breakthrough, improve the manufacturing capacity of major technical equipment with independent intellectual property rights, and drive independent innovation and technological progress in the whole industry.
Fourth, further expand opening up and improve the open economy of the machinery industry.
Guide enterprises to adjust and optimize export structure in a timely manner, transform foreign trade growth mode, cultivate research and development capabilities, support independent brands, improve the technical content and added value of export products; accelerate the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, and promote the upstream and downstream research and development of processing trade industry chain Development and downstream marketing service extension, gradually develop from generation to generation to design and brand-name development; further strengthen exchanges and cooperation with relevant international organizations and enterprises, and strive to maintain industrial safety; innovative use of foreign capital, optimize the use of foreign capital structure, and make full use of The positive role of foreign capital in promoting independent innovation, industrial upgrading, and regional coordinated development.
Fifth, continue to strengthen the machinery industry to support the "three rural" work.
Intensify the research and development, promotion and application of advanced applicable agricultural machinery technology and machinery, accelerate the improvement of agricultural machinery and equipment structure, and upgrade the level of agricultural machinery and equipment; vigorously carry out the deep processing of agricultural products, the efficient use of resources, rural energy, agricultural environmental protection according to the needs of new rural construction. Research and development of related technologies and equipment such as rural transportation machinery, quality and safety testing, rural environmental monitoring, industrial use of crop straw, etc.; guide enterprises to strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as sales outlets, maintenance outlets, and sheds, and enhance the maintenance and support of agricultural machinery. Service capacity such as maintenance.

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